The upcoming US presidential election is just weeks away, and analysts are concerned that Israel’s military campaigns in the Middle East could impact Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances. The Biden administration’s unwavering support for Israel has splintered the Democratic base, with Arab Americans turning against the party. The war in Gaza, enabled by US weapons assistance, has led to a decrease in support for Democrats among Arab voters.
A recent poll showed Harris and Trump virtually tied among Arab voters, with concerns over US policy towards Gaza playing a key role in their decision-making. Swing states like Michigan, with a significant Arab American population, could be pivotal in determining the election outcome. Harris’ narrow lead in Michigan could be affected by third-party candidates, and divisions within the Arab American community about how to use their electoral leverage.
The looming threat of further escalation in the Middle East, including Iran’s recent attack on Israel and Israel’s actions in Lebanon, adds uncertainty to the race. Concerns about a wider regional war are shared by many Americans, particularly Democrats who believe that Israel’s actions are going too far.
Democrats face challenges in reconciling their traditional support for Israel with the shifting views of younger voters and communities of color, who are increasingly supportive of Palestine. Failure to address these concerns could cost the party votes and impact the election outcome. As the final weeks of the race unfold, the role of US foreign policy in the Middle East conflict remains a key issue for many voters.
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