A recent report from the United Nations has revealed that Ukraine’s population has declined by around 10 million people, or a quarter, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. This depletion is attributed to the exodus of refugees, collapsing fertility rates, and war deaths. The country’s population decline was already evident before the war, but the conflict has exacerbated the situation.
6.7 million Ukrainian refugees are currently living abroad, primarily in Europe, with tens of thousands of casualties reported due to war deaths. The birth rate has also plummeted to one child per woman, one of the lowest in the world. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is necessary for a stable population, indicating the severe population decline in Ukraine.
Accurate population data for Ukraine will not be available until after the conflict ends and a complete census can be conducted. Ukraine, with a population of over 50 million in 1991, has experienced a significant decline in recent years, with around 40 million people in 2021. Russia, on the other hand, has also seen a decline in population since invading Ukraine, recording its lowest birth rate since 1999.
The situation in Ukraine and Russia is representative of a larger trend seen across Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with many countries experiencing severe population decline. The impact of the war on both countries, as well as the long-term implications for their populations, remains to be seen.
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